Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve: Daniil Medvedev has been winning 43.65% of points on his second serve in recent months, slightly less than Pablo Carreno-Busta's 44.11%. Could this minor edge impact the match outcome?
• Return Game: Medvedev excels in returning second serves, winning 48.58% of such points, which surpasses Carreno-Busta's 46.97%. However, Carreno-Busta has a better first serve return rate at 27.60% compared to Medvedev's 25.22%. Whose return stats will matter more?
• Pressure Performance: Medvedev shows resilience by saving 58.61% of breakpoints, compared to Carreno-Busta's 53.59%. How might this ability to handle pressure influence the match?
• Overall Performance: Over the past year, Medvedev has won 64.06% of his matches, slightly higher than Carreno-Busta's 59.42%. Can their overall performance trends give us a clear favorite?
• Surface Strengths: Medvedev performs best on Hard courts, winning 75%, while Carreno-Busta is strongest on Clay with the same win percentage. Could the surface dictate their performance?
• Tour Experience: Medvedev competes primarily in Main tour events with a 69.70% win rate, whereas Carreno-Busta achieves a higher 75.68% in Challenger/ITF tournaments. Does this hint at Medvedev's greater experience against tougher opposition?
• Head-to-Head: In direct face-offs, Medvedev leads with 5 victories out of 7 matches, also dominating in sets 10 to 5. Will this momentum continue?
• Opponent Quality: Medvedev regularly faces tougher competition, with opponents averaging a rank of 59.56 versus Carreno-Busta’s 189.97. Is this indicative of Medvedev's higher level of play?
• Deciding Sets: Medvedev has the advantage in deciding sets, winning 56% compared to Carreno-Busta’s 50% over the past year. Could a deciding set tip in Medvedev's favor?

Editorial Prediction (December 23, 2025, UTC):

As the upcoming match approaches, the statistics present a compelling picture favoring Daniil Medvedev.

Despite slightly trailing in second serve points by a small margin, Medvedev's superior performance in returning second serves could significantly impact the match dynamics. His adeptness under pressure, as evidenced by a higher breakpoint save rate, suggests he may maintain composure during critical moments.

While Carreno-Busta shines on Clay, the prevailing surface preferences suggest Medvedev's aptitude on Hard courts could be advantageous. Moreover, Medvedev’s routine encounters with higher-ranked players and his strong track record in deciding sets underline his competitiveness and experience.

Considering Medvedev's head-to-head superiority, past performance trends, and overall match experience, he emerges as the likely winner of this encounter.